Kalshi traders put Democrats' chance of controlling the Senate at 66% on Oct. 22, with the House at 91%. Polymarket's page, updated the same morning, shows 68% for the Senate and 93% for the House. The midterms are on Nov. 3. Betting has already passed the full 2024 cycle. Traders have wagered more than $220 million so far, against $92 million in 2024, according to the Anti-Corruption Data Collective (ACDC), a Washington research group cited by Reuters.
Where the Senate and House markets stand
The DeFi Rate tracker shows the Democratic Senate price rising from 63% to 66% over seven days. Forecasters are less certain than traders. The forecast from Decision Desk HQ gave Democrats a 78% chance in the House and 56% in the Senate.
Texas is the most traded race
The Texas Senate contest between Democrat James Talarico and Republican Ken Paxton has drawn the heaviest betting, Reuters reported. Kalshi calls it the most traded competitive race on its midterm page, with Talarico ahead 67% to 33%. Polymarket had him at 68% on Oct. 22, up 4 points in 24 hours.
The rest of the Senate map
Traders are also betting heavily on Senate races in Maine, Michigan and South Carolina, ACDC said. Polymarket lists Troy Jackson at 66% in Maine and Abdul El-Sayed at 70% in Michigan. It also shows Sherrod Brown at 72% in Ohio and Ashley Hinson at 56% in Iowa.
Those numbers matter because Democrats need to flip seats in states that were not close in recent cycles.
The crypto angle
Crypto money is not tied to one party. Fairshake, the industry's flagship super PAC, backs pro-crypto candidates from both parties, and it sends money to Defend American Jobs for Republicans and Protect Progress for Democrats. Its biggest Senate bet is in Ohio, where it has set aside at least $30 million against Democrat Sherrod Brown, a former Banking Committee chair who voted against many bills the industry favored.
That money backs Republican Jon Husted. On the Senate floor, Republicans have been the more consistent supporters of the current market structure bill. Even so, the House passed the Clarity Act 294 to 134 with 78 Democrats voting yes. The Senate cloture vote then failed 49 to 50 on Sept. 15, and every Democrat present voted no, citing unresolved ethics provisions on officials' crypto profits.
Comprehensive market structure legislation is now seen as unlikely before 2027, and the Nov. 3 result will decide which party chairs the committees that write the next draft. A Republican Senate looks like the smoother path for the industry's bill. A Democratic majority is not automatically hostile, but those senators have tied their votes to ethics rules.
How the markets changed since 2024
ACDC analyzed more than 21,000 midterm markets across Kalshi and Polymarket through Sept. 30. It compared them with 463 markets from the 2024 congressional races. In 2024, 71% of election markets asked who would win. This cycle only 16% do, and 58% focus on a candidate's margin. Most of the money still goes to winner markets, and many niche contracts barely trade.
The money is concentrated. The top 1% of wallets on Polymarket's international platform, ranked by congressional volume, account for 70% of that betting this cycle.
Who is betting, and who objects
"Election prediction markets focus a disruptive new financial technology on our democratic process," said Michelle Kendler-Kretsch, an ACDC researcher.
A Kalshi spokesperson said:
"This data is bottom-up, not elites-driven."
Polymarket says its election markets are 98% accurate one day before a vote.
Kalshi has suspended a handful of candidates for betting on their own races, and it blocks election trades by politicians and campaign workers.
The public is not convinced. A Reuters/Ipsos poll of 4,506 adults, taken Sept. 30 to Oct. 5, found 60% oppose using prediction markets to wager on U.S. election results, while 13% support it. Opposition was 69% among Democrats and 61% among Republicans. Only 7% of respondents had ever wagered on a prediction market.
The Trump administration is pursuing federal rules through the CFTC. Several states are challenging some of them in court, and many expect the dispute to reach the Supreme Court.
Roman Zaika
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