Bitcoin traded at $81,752 on Oct. 20, according to HODLFM's price page. The year-end calls I found run from $78,628 at the low end to $250,000 at the high end. That spread says more about the market than any single number does.
Bitcoin price record is near $126,000. In 2026, BTC peaked just above $97,000 in January.
What banks and research firms predict
$100,000 +
The most recent call came Oct. 18. Ryan Rasmussen, head of research at Bitwise, told CoinDesk:
"We believe bitcoin ends the year higher, potentially above $100,000."
$85,000 to $95,000
Adam Morgan McCarthy of London-based LO:TECH is more cautious. His base case is an $85,000 to $95,000 trading range into year-end. He says a return above $100,000 would need December hike expectations to give way to a pause.
$100,000
Standard Chartered's Geoff Kendrick lowered his year-end target from $150,000 to $100,000 on Feb. 12. The bank has held that target since. Kendrick also warned that Bitcoin could still fall toward $50,000 before recovering.
$125,000
Previously, Bernstein had aggressively pushed for a $150,000 target by the end of 2026. However, following market corrections where Bitcoin fell from its October 2025 peak, the firm adjusted its timeline via its price-to-marginal-cost framework. Rather than abandoning the $150,000 target, they simply extended the window for it to mid-2027, establishing $125,000 as the new expectations anchor for late 2026.
$113,000
Citigroup’s evaluation of Bitcoin relies on a rolling 12-month outlook rather than a strict Dec. 31 projection. Pointing to a strong return of spot ETF inflows, the bank revised its Bitcoin target upward to $113,000 (reversing an earlier $82,000 cut).
$150,000 to $200,000
Fundstrat's Tom Lee has held a $200,000 to $250,000 year-end target, though he softened it to a $150,000 to $200,000 range before January ended.
What prediction markets price
Traders are less bullish than Bitwise. Kalshi's page shows a 22% chance of Bitcoin being above $99,999.99 by Dec. 31. Polymarket also shows 22% for $100,000 by Dec. 31.
The next Fed decision is Wednesday, Oct. 28 at 14:00 ET. TradingView News put the chance of an October hike at about 16%, and pricing for at least one more hike by December near 92%. McCarthy cites a lower figure of about 75% for December alone.
Rasmussen expects volatility around a possible late-October Fed rate increase and November's U.S. midterm elections. The midterms are Nov. 3.
Anastasiia G
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