Bitcoin traded near $62,500 at the start of the week, its lowest range since the third quarter of 2024, after a combination of geopolitical shock, heavy selling from midsize holders, and a seven-year dormant whale transfer put fresh pressure on an already fragile market structure.
A wallet last active when Bitcoin traded near $6,500 moved 2,931 BTC on Sunday, worth approximately $188 million at current prices. Blockchain data platform Arkham tracked the transfer from wallet address "356my" to address "bc1qn." On-chain analytics platform Onchain Lens estimated the holder was sitting on close to a ten-fold gain on the long-dormant position.
The timing matters. CryptoQuant data shows that approximately 99% of BTC deposited to exchanges currently comes from the 10 largest individual transfers. The platform's exchange whale ratio stood at 0.99 at the time of the transfer. CryptoQuant describes a high whale ratio as "historically a bearish signal," because large deposits are more likely to precede significant sell orders than routine retail activity.
Oil surged and yields jumped as US-Iran conflict resumed
Over the weekend, Iran declared the Strait of Hormuz closed until further notice, breaking the fragile ceasefire previously in effect. US WTI crude oil returned to $74 per barrel on Monday, a rise of nearly 12% versus its July lows.
Nic Puckrin, CEO and co-founder of crypto education platform Coin Bureau, flagged what he saw as the broader financial consequence.
"US 2yr T-bill yields just shot above 2.35%, the highest level in 16 months!" he wrote on X. "The Iran situation is pushing up oil prices and inflation expectations. It's saying: Interest rates are going to be higher for longer."
Not all market observers placed the same weight on the Iran factor. Crypto trader and analyst Michaël van de Poppe pushed back on the geopolitical explanation.
This correction has, in my opinion, little to do with everything in the Middle East.
— Michaël van de Poppe (@CryptoMichNL) July 13, 2026
It has a lot more to do with the Japanese Yield jumping again.
I expect to see a breakdown in Yield over the next 1-2 weeks, which would automatically lead to a positive breakout in #Bitcoin. pic.twitter.com/PMM60DwD1n
Midsize Bitcoin holders recorded their largest distribution day since February
CryptoQuant contributor Amr Taha published on-chain data Monday covering wallets holding between 100 and 1,000 BTC. The numbers showed a significant single-day shift.
"Bitcoin wallets holding between 100 and 1,000 BTC recorded net distribution of about 67,000 BTC on July 13, the cohort's strongest selling activity since February 19, when distribution reached roughly 47,000 BTC," Taha wrote in a blog post.
That February distribution event was followed by a price rebound. Taha noted that these mid-sized entities "historically reduce exposure before bullish BTC price reversals." He was careful not to claim the signal confirmed a bottom.
"The current signal does not confirm a market bottom, but it places Bitcoin near another historically significant shift in mid-sized investor behavior," he wrote.
SoSoValue data shows US spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $197 million in net weekly inflows in the week through July 10, their first positive week after eight consecutive weeks of net outflows. That figure followed $4.51 billion in net outflows in June, the worst month on record. The inflows helped Bitcoin hold above its June support zone but were not enough to push price through resistance near $65,000.
CPI, PPI, and Warsh testimony arrive against an oil shock backdrop
Against the Iran backdrop, traders face a dense macro calendar. June Consumer Price Index data is due Tuesday at 8:30 a.m. Eastern Time, followed by the Producer Price Index on Wednesday. Both represent the final inflation readings before the Federal Reserve's rate decision at the end of the month. Headline consumer inflation reached 4.2% in May, and producer inflation stayed elevated. A hotter reading would likely push bond yields higher and pressure risk assets further.
Almost immediately after Tuesday's CPI release, new Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh will present the semiannual monetary policy report to the House Financial Services Committee. Warsh has kept a hawkish stance since taking over in May, under pressure from President Donald Trump to cut rates but avoiding any clear signal of policy relaxation. CME Group's FedWatch Tool shows markets currently price rates as unchanged until September, when consensus calls for a 0.25% increase.
Trading resource The Kobeissi Letter described the schedule as "a highly eventful week."
BREAKING: US stock market futures open slightly lower after Iran declares the Strait of Hormuz closed again:
— The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) July 12, 2026
1. S&P 500: -0.1%
2. Nasdaq 100: -0.3%
3. Dow Jones: -0.1%
4. WTI Crude: +3.0%
5. Brent: +2.5%
6. Gold: -0.3%
The "Memorandum of Understanding" appears to have come to…
Glassnode data showed long-term holders, defined as wallets holding coins for roughly 155 days or longer, turned net buyers on July 11 and 12. The group added a net 5,912 BTC across the two days while Bitcoin traded near $62,717. The shift followed 12 straight days of net selling by that cohort. The last comparable reversal began in late February when Bitcoin was near $65,896, and accumulation strengthened before the price reached approximately $82,186 on May 10.
Gunel Ismayilova
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