Bitcoin gained 42.71% in the third quarter of 2026, closing near $83,554 in its second-best Q3 since Coinglass began tracking quarterly returns in 2013, trailing only the 80.41% surge recorded in 2017. Ethereum outpaced it entirely, gaining 70.8% to post its single best Q3 on record, with positive returns in every month of the quarter.
Both assets beat the S&P 500 and gold over the same period. The Q3 strength followed a rough first half for both tokens, with Bitcoin down 22.2% and 14.09% in Q1 and Q2 respectively, and Ethereum falling 29.26% and 25.28% across the same stretch.
Citi raised its year-end targets as Q3 closed
Citi boosted its year-end price targets to $113,000 for Bitcoin and $3,028 for Ether, citing strong on-chain activity and an expectation of approximately $5 billion in additional ETF inflows before the year closes.
Citi's revised targets arrive against a backdrop where the bank has repeatedly adjusted its crypto forecasts throughout 2026 as institutional adoption data outpaced earlier assumptions. The $113,000 Bitcoin target would represent a further 35% gain from the September 30 close near $83,554, a jump that assumes continued ETF demand holds through Q4 despite the sharp single-day outflow recorded on the final day of the quarter.
The last day of Q3 told a different story than the quarter itself
Despite the strong quarterly close, according to SoSoValue data, US spot crypto ETFs recorded a combined outflow of approximately $233.23 million on September 30, the final trading day of the quarter. Bitcoin ETFs alone shed 1,776 BTC, worth $148.69 million. Ethereum ETFs lost 22,290 ETH, or $59.58 million, while Solana, Zcash, Hyperliquid, and Dogecoin products all posted outflows as well.
Fidelity's ETF sold 1,500 BTC for $125.58 million and 9,950 ETH for $26.60 million, the largest single outflow among reporting issuers. BlackRock's fund sold 113 BTC worth $9.48 million, Bitwise sold 163 BTC for $13.63 million, and Grayscale's product sold 12,340 ETH for $32.98 million.
That single day of selling amounted to roughly four days' worth of newly mined Bitcoin, according to the data. Daily Bitcoin issuance sits at approximately 450 BTC following the April 2024 halving, which puts the 1,776 BTC sold by US spot ETFs in a single session at close to four times the network's daily new supply. A sell-off of that scale from ETF issuers in one day represents a meaningful liquidity event relative to how much new Bitcoin actually enters circulation, even though it remains small against total market depth.
Not every token saw red on the final day
Three assets bucked the outflow trend. Chainlink ETFs added 101.65K LINK worth $1.45 million, Litecoin ETFs gained 21.90K LTC for the same $1.45 million figure, and NEAR ETFs posted the largest inflow of the group at 2.61 million NEAR, worth $14.04 million. BNB, Polkadot, Tron, Avalanche, XRP, and Hedera ETFs recorded zero flow for the day.
NEAR's inflow stands out given the token's recent positioning around AI-linked infrastructure, a narrative that has drawn fresh institutional product launches including Bitwise's spot NEAR ETF, which debuted with in-house staking just days before this reporting period. An inflow of this size into a comparatively newer, smaller-cap product category suggests some ETF capital rotated toward AI-narrative tokens even as flagship Bitcoin and Ethereum funds saw broad selling on the same day.
Why Q4 history keeps the longer-term outlook intact
Bitcoin's average Q4 return across all tracked years stands at 71.56%, by far the strongest quarter historically, though the median figure of 26.59% reflects how a handful of exceptional years, including 2013's 479.59% and 2020's 168.02%, pull the average well above what a typical year has delivered. Ethereum's Q4 average sits at 16.95%, with a median of just 0.15%, reflecting far more inconsistency than Bitcoin's fourth-quarter pattern.
The gap between average and median returns for both assets underscores how reliant historical Q4 strength has been on outsized years rather than a dependable seasonal pattern. 2026's Q4 so far carries no confirmed direction, and the September 30 ETF outflows, immediately following the strongest quarterly close since 2017, illustrate how quickly institutional positioning can shift even after a historically strong quarter concludes.
Both Bitcoin and Ethereum enter the fourth quarter with their strongest quarterly performance in years behind them, but the final day's reversal in ETF flows leaves open whether Q4's historically bullish seasonality will hold against a backdrop of profit-taking from some of the largest institutional holders.
Kristian Koch
Disclaimer: All materials on this site are for informational purposes only. None of the material should be interpreted as investment advice. Cryptocurrency investments involve significant risk of loss. Please note that, despite the nature of much of the material created and hosted on this website, HODL FM operates as a media and informational platform, not a provider of financial advisory services. The opinions of authors and other contributors are their own and should not be taken as financial advice. If you require advice, HODL FM strongly recommends contacting a qualified industry professional.
