Bitcoin traded around $86,000 after reclaiming its 365-day moving average near $80,500, a level that has historically preceded major bull market phases, as multiple analysts published price targets ranging from $100,000 by October to over $232,000 by 2027-2028.

PlanB, the analyst behind the stock-to-flow model, laid out what he explicitly labeled a scenario rather than a firm prediction.

"Just a scenario for the second half of this halving cycle, Apr 2024 - Apr 2028 (no not a prediction, just a scenario, food for thought, you assign the odds)," he wrote on X, projecting $100,000 in October, a new all-time high above $126,000 before Christmas, and prices exceeding $232,000, described as 4 times the $58,000 bottom, sometime in 2027 to 2028.

Why this bear market broke the standard four-year playbook

Glassnode's research directly challenged the assumption that Bitcoin's current cycle would follow its three prior four-year patterns.

"The four-year cycle playbook many relied on has not worked for this $BTC bear," Glassnode wrote. "At this point, the last three were more than twice as deep and weeks from their lows. This one is 30% below its high and rising. A late drop to their depth looks less likely by the week."

Bitcoin's three previous major bear markets, following the 2013, 2017, and 2021 cycle peaks, each produced drawdowns exceeding 70% to 80% from their respective all-time highs before bottoming. A 30% drawdown that is already recovering represents a meaningfully shallower correction than any of those three precedents, which is the specific data point Glassnode's comparison highlights. This matters for how analysts read forward-looking cycle models: if the depth of the correction has already diverged significantly from the historical pattern, models built purely on repeating the prior three cycles' shape lose some of their predictive reliability, even if the broader four-year halving-linked framework still holds directionally.

Layah Heilpern noted the prior cycle top occurred in October 2025, with a possible bottom around mid-November 2026, while prediction markets currently price roughly 40% odds of Bitcoin reaching $100,000 before the end of the year.

Other analysts have mapped a more granular monthly path, projecting recovery through September, a peak near $190,000 in February, followed by a distribution phase and a bear market beginning around August.

What on-chain demand data shows beneath the price action

CryptoQuant contributor CW8900 published a granular read on Bitcoin's underlying demand structure.

"Bitcoin demand remains negative, but it is recovering from the bottom," the analyst wrote. "The negative value of $BTC spot demand has narrowed slightly, while futures demand continues to increase."

The post detailed a specific sequencing:

"The scale of $BTC net outflows is shrinking, and total demand is in the process of rebounding. Additionally, $BTC is showing an upward trend. A rebound in demand is emerging alongside positive price action." The analyst identified a clear threshold for confirming a stronger move: "Although total demand remains in negative territory, the trend is shifting toward the positive. If the current momentum persists, spot demand will also flip to positive. That moment will mark the beginning of a more significant rally."

This CryptoQuant framing distinguishes between futures-driven and spot-driven demand recovery, a distinction previously flagged as a bearish concern in August 2026 when CryptoQuant analyst Coindream warned that a similar Bitcoin advance lacked genuine spot support and was instead derivatives-driven. The current data shows futures demand already positive and rising while spot demand remains negative but narrowing, meaning the market has not yet cleared the specific bar that separates a leverage-driven bounce from a fully confirmed accumulation-led rally. CW8900's framing treats the flip to positive spot demand as the decisive confirmation point rather than the current recovery in futures demand alone.

The 365-day moving average reclaim near $80,500 adds a separate technical signal to this picture, distinct from the 50-week moving average reclaim reported in prior weeks. Both metrics measure trend direction over different windows, and their simultaneous confirmation strengthens the case that Bitcoin has moved past a multi-month downtrend, even as analysts continue to disagree on how far and how fast the subsequent rally might extend.

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