Bitcoin traded at $86,175 on October 2, extending its push above $85,000 as the market's so-called "Uptober" rally gathered pace. The move followed Citi's decision to raise its 12-month Bitcoin price target from $82,000 to $113,000, and a reversal in spot ETF flows that turned positive on the first trading day of the month.
US spot Bitcoin ETFs attracted $102.67 million in net inflows on October 1, according to SoSoValue data, reversing Wednesday's $148.7 million outflow. Cumulative net inflows since launch reached $57.60 billion, with total net assets climbing to $109.34 billion, equivalent to 6.43% of Bitcoin's total market capitalization.
Which ETFs actually drove Thursday's inflow
BlackRock's IBIT led by a wide margin, pulling in $195.57 million in a single day and pushing its cumulative net inflow to $65.57 billion, by far the largest of any Bitcoin ETF tracked. Morgan Stanley's MSBT added $7.04 million, consistent with the fund's recent buying pattern. Grayscale's spot BTC product (ticker BTC) brought in $14.59 million.
Not every fund gained. Fidelity's FBTC recorded a $60.73 million outflow on the same day, while Grayscale's older GBTC product lost $31.39 million and Bitwise's BITB shed $6.89 million. Ark & 21Shares' ARKB and VanEck's HODL both posted smaller outflows of $7.72 million and $3.59 million respectively.
The spread between IBIT's $195.57 million inflow and FBTC's $60.73 million outflow on the same trading day shows that October's positive headline figure masks a split in investor behavior across issuers. The net positive $102.67 million figure for the day only holds because BlackRock's inflow outweighed the combined outflows from Fidelity, Grayscale's GBTC, Bitwise, Ark & 21Shares, and VanEck.
Why October's flows arrive after the strongest quarter of the year
Thursday's inflow followed $6.34 billion in third-quarter net inflows overall, including $2.65 billion in September alone, a quarter during which Bitcoin gained 42.71%, its best Q3 performance since 2017. Bitcoin traded at about $85,900 at the time SoSoValue's October 1 data was published, up 2.1% over the prior 24 hours, with the Crypto Fear & Greed Index slipping slightly to 72 from 74 a day earlier, though it remained in "Greed" territory throughout.
Ether told a different story. Spot Ether ETFs recorded $55.4 million in net outflows on the same day, extending a three-session outflow streak to approximately $118 million total. Solana ETFs posted roughly $6 million in outflows, extending their own streak to two sessions, while XRP ETFs bucked the trend with $4 million in net inflows.
Liquidation data shows where leveraged bets got hit hardest
CoinGlass data showed 78,450 traders liquidated over the prior 24 hours, with total liquidations reaching $343.28 million. The largest single liquidation order occurred on Binance, a BTCUSDT position worth $11.72 million.
Bitcoin accounted for $132.20 million of total liquidations, the largest share across any asset, followed by Ethereum at $70.90 million. Among smaller-cap tokens, Zcash and Solana each saw more than $15 million in liquidations within the 24-hour window.
Short positions dominated the liquidation breakdown at every timeframe tracked. Over the full 24-hour period, short liquidations reached $245.22 million against just $98.07 million in long liquidations, a ratio of roughly 2.5 to 1.
What the Fed's rate signal added to the rally
New York Fed President John Williams said there was "no need for urgency" to raise interest rates again, a comment that pulled CME FedWatch's October hike odds down to around 24%. Lower rate hike expectations reduce pressure on risk assets broadly, adding a macro tailwind to the ETF flow reversal and Citi's upgraded price target on the same day.
$86,837 remains the level traders are watching
With Bitcoin now trading above $86,000, the recent swing high of $86,837.30 sits as the next technical test. A sustained break above that level would open a path toward $87,000 and eventually the $95,000 to $100,000 range analysts have cited following Citi's revised forecast. A failure to hold above $85,000 would risk a pullback toward the $83,000 area, the lower boundary of the range Bitcoin has held since its move up from $79,500.
Gunel Ismayilova
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