Binance's chief security officer says quantum computers remain far from a practical threat to crypto holders, though the estimated resources needed to build one capable of attacking major blockchain networks are lower than they once appeared.
Jimmy Su made the case in an Aug. 11 Binance post that answered five common questions about quantum computing. The exchange frames the issue as a long-term engineering challenge rather than an active emergency, and Su said the more immediate dangers for users remain social engineering and compromised credentials.
"Current quantum computers are nowhere near the scale and reliability needed to break the cryptography protecting digital assets," Su said. "Quantum computing is a real long-term security issue, but it's not an immediate threat to your crypto today. The important thing is that we prepare before that changes."
The threat that is actually costing money now
Data from the first half of 2026 backs Su's framing. TRM Labs recorded approximately $972 million stolen across 207 hacks between January and June. Infrastructure and operational compromises drove roughly 76% of those losses despite accounting for about 15% of incidents. SlowMist's data placed contract and logic vulnerabilities at the top of incident counts, with private key and credential compromises in second position.
🚨 SlowMist presents the 2026 Mid-year Blockchain Security & AML Report!
— SlowMist (@SlowMist_Team) July 7, 2026
1/ In H1 2026, blockchain security entered a new phase. AI-driven scams, supply chain attacks, and cross-chain infrastructure exploits expanded the attack surface beyond smart contracts, while global… pic.twitter.com/oFFpe7nwML
None of those attack categories involve quantum hardware.
"The threats most likely to steal your crypto today are still things like phishing, malware, social engineering, compromised credentials and poor wallet security – not quantum computers," Su said.
He also cautioned against products marketed as quantum-proof before independent validation supports the label.
"You could actually introduce more security risk today trying to protect yourself against a future threat," he said.
Why a March paper changed the conversation
The debate over when quantum computers might become a genuine threat sharpened in March 2026. Google Quantum AI published research estimating that a future quantum machine could break the elliptic curve cryptography protecting Bitcoin and Ethereum with fewer than 500,000 physical qubits under specified hardware assumptions. That figure represents roughly 20 times fewer resources than a prior estimate had required. The compression came from more efficient quantum algorithms rather than a comparable advance in existing hardware.
The theoretical attack relies on Shor's algorithm, which a sufficiently capable machine could use to derive a private key from an exposed public key. No such machine currently exists. Su said the revised estimate is why preparation cannot wait.
"We're talking about quantum now not because there's an emergency today, but because waiting until there is an emergency could be much too late," he said.
The migration problem, not the algorithm problem
The cryptographic tools needed for a transition already exist. The U.S. National Institute of Standards and Technology finalized quantum-resistant standards, including ML-DSA and ML-KEM, in 2024 and has told organizations to begin migration. Its roadmap targets the eventual removal of vulnerable algorithms from NIST standards by 2035.
Su said the actual bottleneck is ecosystem migration, not algorithm design.
"We already have post-quantum cryptographic algorithms designed to resist attacks from both classical and quantum computers. The bigger challenge is migrating the entire crypto ecosystem safely," he said.
Blockchain networks cannot receive a single software update pushed to every participant. A transition would require coordination at every layer, from core protocol developers to the millions of holders who have never engaged with a network governance process. Open governance questions sit alongside the technical ones.
"If those coins are protected by cryptography that eventually becomes vulnerable, what should happen to dormant or potentially lost wallets? Do you eventually freeze legacy coins that haven't migrated? How long should users have to migrate?" Su asked.
Where the money for preparation is going
Several large firms have already committed capital to address the problem. Strategy, BlackRock, Coinbase and six other companies pledged $15 million over three years to Bitcoin security research, with post-quantum cryptography among the consortium's stated priorities. Galaxy separately committed up to $5 million for Bitcoin quantum readiness research and developer grants.
At the network level, Ethereum's updated technical roadmap moved quantum security higher among its development priorities. Sui published specific deployment targets on Aug. 6, with quantum-safe vaults planned for mainnet before the end of 2026 and native post-quantum account authentication targeted for mainnet in the first quarter of 2027, subject to audits and testing.
Binance said it monitors quantum developments and evaluates post-quantum security standards while preparing its infrastructure for eventual network-level migrations. Su acknowledged that no single exchange can resolve the problem on its own.
"Bitcoin, Ethereum, and other blockchains have their own communities and upgrade paths. Exchanges, custodians and wallet providers will ultimately need to support those migrations and help users transition safely," he said.
For ordinary holders, Binance does not recommend an immediate change in custody practices on quantum grounds. Sui has set a year-end testnet target for its ML-DSA-65 account standard as part of the same Aug. 6 roadmap, one of the nearer dates the industry has attached to post-quantum deployment.
Alex Shepel
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