Meta Platforms is developing a standalone prediction markets app as chief executive Mark Zuckerberg looks to capture momentum from fast-growing rivals such as Polymarket and Kalshi, according to reporting by The New York Times.
Meta explores prediction markets with “Arena”
The project, internally called Arena, centers on a mobile app that lets users forecast outcomes across events that range from sports to politics. Two employees with knowledge of the matter said that the app will likely rely on a points system rather than real-money wagers. The company has not ruled out introducing monetary betting later.
Arena will operate independently from Meta’s core platforms, which include Facebook, Instagram, WhatsApp and Messenger. The same employees said the company intends to use its existing scale to drive adoption. Meta reported 3.56 billion daily active users across its apps in March.
The push reflects internal pressure to find new product categories as engagement patterns shift. Meta executives see fewer opportunities to test new ideas inside its main apps, which now emphasize short-form video.
Growth of prediction markets draws tech interest
Prediction markets have moved into the mainstream over the past two years. Platforms such as Polymarket and Kalshi allow users to trade on event outcomes, often framed as contracts tied to probabilities.
Two platforms handled a combined $50 billion in trades in 2025. The activity has already surpassed $150 billion this year. Reuters described prediction markets as an emerging asset class that covers events from monetary policy to sports tournaments.
The surge has attracted competitors across sectors. Traditional betting firms such as FanDuel and DraftKings have introduced similar offerings. Crypto exchange Gemini has also entered the space. Trump Media & Technology Group has explored its own prediction market plans.
Meta has experimented in this category before. In 2020, the company launched Forecast, a points-based prediction app during the early stages of the Covid-19 pandemic. The product shut down in 2022.
Regulatory scrutiny intensifies in the US
Rapid growth has triggered regulatory attention. Prediction markets fall under the oversight of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, which faces expanding responsibilities as the sector evolves.
The New York Times reported concerns in Washington over insider trading risks. One case involved a member of US Special Forces accused of using confidential information tied to a plan involving Nicolás Maduro. Prosecutors said the individual generated more than $400,000 in profits through trades on Polymarket.
Meta’s broader product strategy
Arena forms part of a wider effort inside Meta to build standalone apps. The company is also testing Meta Photos, an artificial intelligence product focused on generating new media formats.
Meta has pursued similar strategies in the past with mixed results. A team known as New Product Experimentation launched several apps in 2019, including services for podcasts and travel. Few gained traction, according to people familiar with those efforts.
Zuckerberg has historically responded to shifts in user behavior by replicating features from competitors. That approach produced successes in some cases, though adoption challenges remain for new standalone apps.
The current push comes as Meta invests heavily in artificial intelligence and restructures parts of its workforce. The company reduced staff by about 10 percent in April, affecting roughly 8,000 roles.
Kristian Koch
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