Glassnode's altcoin cycle signal flipped from Bitcoin season to altcoin season, the analytics firm reported, which indicates a shift in which segment of the crypto market is capturing the strongest gains.
"The altcoin cycle signal has just flipped from bitcoin to altcoin season," Glassnode wrote on X. "The first rally in August saw altcoins stay relatively flat while BTC moved. However, today's rally has ignited the full breadth of the altcoin market."
Bitcoin has held in a range between $85,000 and $86,500 during this period, while the total crypto market capitalization spans $1.7 trillion to $2.9 trillion. The distinction Glassnode draws matters: August's rally was Bitcoin-led, with altcoins trailing behind rather than participating. Instead of merely following Bitcoin's momentum, the current trend appears to be structurally different, with wider market participation across altcoins gaining relative strength against it.
Not every altcoin season indicator agrees yet
BlockchainCenter's Altcoin Season Index currently reads 49 as of 22 September, 2026, a level that sits below the widely cited threshold of 75 typically used to confirm a full altcoin season.
Blockchaincenter's index is built by comparing the 90-day performance of the top 50 coins by market cap against Bitcoin, which requires that at least 75% of those coins outperform Bitcoin over that trailing window before declaring altcoin season confirmed.
Why ISM manufacturing data matters for crypto positioning
The timing of this rotation connects to broader macro data. Improving US ISM manufacturing data has historically preceded capital rotation into higher-risk assets, a pattern that extends beyond crypto into equities and other risk-sensitive markets more broadly.
The ISM Manufacturing Index, published monthly by the Institute for Supply Management, measures purchasing manager sentiment across US factory activity, with readings above 50 indicating expansion and readings below 50 indicating contraction. The index has functioned as a leading economic indicator for decades because manufacturing activity tends to respond to changes in demand and financing conditions before broader GDP data captures the shift.
STOP !!!!! YOU MUST UNDERSTAND THIS!
— The House Of Crypto (@Peter_thoc) September 22, 2026
Altcoins have been rallying strongly vs bitcoin and do not have to wait for Bitcoin to hit all time high!!!
Here's why....
ISM manufacturing (middle chart) in US was in a bear market since 2022, it is now rising strongly. Last 2 times it… pic.twitter.com/rgY6KtB6zP
When ISM data improves, it often signals that businesses expect stronger economic conditions ahead, which historically correlates with investors becoming more willing to take on risk across their portfolios, moving capital away from safe havens and into higher-beta assets. Crypto altcoins, which carry substantially more volatility and risk than Bitcoin itself, sit near the far end of that risk spectrum, which is why improving manufacturing data has previously coincided with altcoins outperforming Bitcoin during risk-on phases of the market cycle.
What an early-stage rotation actually looks like
An early phase is suggested by a single confirmed signal that is still below their confirmation thresholds. Glassnode's own framing distinguishes between the August rally, where Bitcoin moved while altcoins stayed flat, and the current move, described as having "ignited the full breadth of the altcoin market." That distinction, breadth of participation rather than magnitude of a single asset's gain, is the specific signal Glassnode's methodology appears to be tracking.
Anastasiia G
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