21shares published its State of Crypto 2026 mid-year update Tuesday, a structured audit of ten predictions the Zurich-based asset manager made in December 2025. The report concluded that infrastructure arrived largely on schedule, but weaker prices, a damaging run of DeFi exploits, and slower enterprise uptake pushed several numeric targets out of reach.
Bitcoin's four-year cycle was the report's most closely examined subject. 21shares had entered 2026 expecting the cycle might be finished. Six months in, price data did not support that conclusion.
"Heading into the year, it had almost become consensus that Bitcoin's four-year cycle was finished, but the price action still looks familiar," said Eliezer Ndinga, Head of Research at 21shares. "Following the peak at $126,000 in October 2025, Bitcoin corrected sharply, tracking closely with historical post-halving rhythms. However, our on-chain data shows structural maturity: the current drawdown is far milder than the 80%+ corrections of previous cycles, and Bitcoin has continuously stayed above its aggregate investor cost basis of $54,000. Fundamental metrics point to a base-case recovery toward $100,000 by year-end, rather than an unbacked breakout."
Total global crypto ETP assets under management stood at approximately $140 billion by May, down 15% year-to-date and well short of the firm's $400 billion target. US spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded roughly $3 billion in net outflows. Despite that, BTC holdings held at just over 1.25 million coins, within 8% of an all-time high in coin terms.
"Allocators are holding through volatility," said Adrian Fritz, Chief Investment Strategist at 21shares, who also pointed to Hyperliquid ETFs in the US capturing $150 million in their opening month as evidence that institutional demand targets platforms with clear on-chain operational revenue.
Prediction markets run ahead of the firm's own forecast
One call landed furthest ahead of schedule. 21shares had set a $100 billion annual trading volume target for decentralized prediction markets. Through May 2026, the sector recorded $57.5 billion, more than half the annual goal and more than ten times the volume from the same period the prior year.
The firm projected the full year to push closer to $200 billion. The second half carries concentrated event catalysts. The FIFA World Cup is underway, and US midterm elections arrive in November. Several conditions the report identified as prerequisites arrived during the first half. The CFTC ended probes into Polymarket and Kalshi. Intercontinental Exchange committed up to $2 billion to scale Polymarket. Google and X embedded live prediction market odds directly into their platforms.
Spain ordered both Polymarket and Kalshi blocked in late May for operating without gambling licenses, with Brazil, India, Indonesia, and Portugal having already moved to restrict access. Those blocks have not materially affected total volumes.
DeFi falls short after more than $840 million lost to exploits
The DeFi forecast did not hold. 21shares had projected total value locked would exceed $300 billion. As of May, TVL stood at roughly $140 billion.
More than $840 million was lost across more than 50 DeFi exploits through May, roughly 70% more than in the same period the prior year. The KelpDAO exploit saw close to $300 million stolen and triggered more than $13 billion in outflows within two days.
The Ethereum layer-2 consolidation call from December proved accurate. The five largest networks now capture close to 90% of all daily active users. Base and Arbitrum alone control approximately 70% of total L2 assets. More than 50 smaller scaling networks operate on treasury runway rather than genuine user demand. Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin declared in February that the rollup-centric roadmap "no longer makes sense," a conclusion the report said aligned with 21shares' own December forecast.
On tokenized real-world assets, the outcome depends on which assets are counted. Assets on public blockchains total roughly $31 billion, led by approximately $15 billion in tokenized US Treasuries. When assets represented on permissioned institutional networks such as Canton are included, the figure reaches approximately $350 billion. The original target was $500 billion.
The DTCC, custodian of more than $100 trillion in securities, is scheduled to conduct limited production trades of tokenized DTC-custodied US Treasuries in July, with a full platform launch in October.
Corporate digital asset treasuries also missed the $250 billion target. At current prices, combined holdings across roughly 200 publicly listed companies stand at approximately $100 billion. Thirteen of 18 major treasury vehicles tracked in the report trade below the value of the bitcoin they hold. Stablecoin supply ended May at approximately $320 billion, roughly a third of the $1 trillion year-end target set in December.
Tanya Petrusenko
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