SpaceX’s expected $75 billion IPO has intensified pressure on crypto markets, with Bitcoin falling and ETF outflows rising. Crypto platforms see strong demand for SpaceX-linked derivatives and tokenized exposure.
Bitcoin weakens as capital shifts ahead of IPO
Bitcoin has faced sustained pressure in the days leading up to SpaceX’s anticipated public debut. HodlFM data shows the asset has dropped about 15% over the past week, while total crypto market capitalization declined to $2.13 trillion.
The decline coincides with reduced exposure across derivatives markets. Bitcoin open interest fell to around $46 billion, which indicates a pullback in leveraged positioning.
Sentiment metrics also point to caution. Data from Alternative’s Crypto Fear & Greed Index shows a reading of 12, which places the market deep in extreme fear territory. Institutional flows show a similar pattern. According to SoSoValue, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded net outflows of $382.66 million this week.
CryptoQuant reported realized losses of about 187,000 BTC over the past 30 days. That figure remains below the roughly 400,000 BTC recorded during the February sell-off and far below the 1.2 million BTC seen after the FTX collapse. The firm stated,
"Historically, major bottoms form after seller exhaustion. The data suggests we’re not there yet."
SpaceX IPO creates competition for liquidity
Against this backdrop, SpaceX’s IPO has emerged as a competing destination for capital. The company aims to raise $75 billion at a share price near $135, which implies a valuation close to $1.75 trillion to $1.8 trillion.
Reuters reported that up to 30% of the offering may go to retail investors. That allocation stands above typical IPO structures, where retail participation often remains closer to 10%.
Spencer Hallarn, global head of over-the-counter trading at GSR, described the funding pressure in an interview with Reuters:
"Crypto is a funding currency for a lot of this. We’ve got to find $75 billion for this IPO, and it’s got to come from somewhere."
Jeff Park, an adviser at Bitwise, linked the recent Bitcoin decline to investor behavior around large listings. He said,
"Bitcoin is being tapped to fund the market’s upcoming hot ball of money trades: SpaceX, Anthropic, whatever else everyone suddenly 'has to own.'"
Tokenized markets expand around SpaceX demand
While capital appears to move out of crypto, the same event has created new activity within crypto-native markets.
Pre-IPO derivatives tied to SpaceX have attracted strong participation. Talos reported that perpetual futures linked to the company have generated more than $385 million in open interest and $2.7 billion in cumulative trading volume across platforms such as Hyperliquid, Binance, and OKX.
These instruments allow investors to express views on private company valuations before shares become publicly available. Talos described them as a mechanism for early price discovery.
Samar Sen, vice president of international markets at Talos, said,
"Crypto-native markets are enabling around-the-clock trading and transparent valuation signals ahead of major public listings."
Tokenized equity products have also seen demand. Bitget stated that its SpaceX IPO subscription offering through xStocks expanded from $3 million to $13 million due to oversubscription.
Alvin Kan, chief operating officer at Bitget Wallet, said,
"The speed and scale of demand here reflects something the traditional IPO system was never designed to accommodate, crypto-native users with capital conviction and no tolerance for gatekeepers. Self-custodial wallets are becoming a serious channel for capital markets access."
Other platforms, including Kraken, Bybit, and Robinhood, provide access to SpaceX-related products. Binance offers stock-linked perpetual contracts to users outside the United States, while Robinhood has explored tokenized exposure for European customers.
A split effect across crypto markets
The SpaceX IPO has created a dual effect across crypto markets. On one side, capital rotation has contributed to price declines and weaker sentiment. On the other side, demand for tokenized exposure and derivatives has expanded.
Technical indicators still show vulnerability. Bitcoin trades near $62,800, with a lower support level near $59,000. Momentum indicators remain negative, which leaves room for additional downside if buyers fail to defend these levels.
The scale of the IPO continues to draw attention. Estimates suggest demand for SpaceX shares has reached between $150 billion and $250 billion, which signals strong interest from both institutional and retail participants.
The company also holds approximately $1.2 billion in Bitcoin on its balance sheet, according to BitcoinTreasuries data. That detail adds another layer to the relationship between crypto markets and the upcoming listing.
The next trading sessions around pricing and the first day of trading may offer clearer signals. Market participants will track whether capital outflows from crypto accelerate or stabilize after the IPO completes.
Tanya Petrusenko
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