The NFL filed an amicus brief on October 8 urging the Supreme Court to take up New Jersey's appeal against Kalshi, siding against the prediction market operator in a case that could determine whether sports event contracts fall under federal or state oversight. The brief asks the Court to resolve a split between the Third Circuit, which ruled Kalshi's sports contracts qualify as "swaps" under the CFTC's exclusive jurisdiction, and the Sixth and Ninth Circuits, which reached the opposite conclusion.
The league's position is direct: Dodd-Frank's definition of a swap covers instruments that hedge existing risk, not bets that create new risk.
"Sports-related event contracts are not naturally considered swaps under the CEA," the brief states, aligning the NFL with the Sixth and Ninth Circuits' narrower reading.
Why the NFL says it tried working with the CFTC first
The brief details specific safeguards the NFL requested and says were ignored. The league asked the CFTC and operators like Kalshi to prohibit contracts "easily manipulable by a single person," those involving player injuries or officiating decisions, and contracts whose outcomes are "knowable in advance of settlement," such as whether the opening play will be a run or pass.
The brief also flags an age gap:
"The Commission currently allows many contracts that fall within these categories," while state sportsbooks generally impose a minimum age of 21. The NFL noted that an 18-year-old "could not bet on a game through Caesars Sportsbook, but could bet on the same game through Kalshi."
On enforcement capacity, the brief states the CFTC has only 543 employees covering the entire country's derivatives markets, compared to roughly 400 employees each at Nevada's and Pennsylvania's state gaming boards alone. Without coordination on prohibited bettor lists, the brief argues, "nominal insider-trading policies or prohibitions are paper tigers."
The scale of NFL-linked trading volume cited in the filing
The brief states that on the first Sunday of this NFL season, NFL-related contracts accounted for $1.8 billion of $3.3 billion traded across prediction markets. It separately cites Kalshi's total 2026 trading volume at more than $173 billion, with sports trading making up 80% of the platform's volume since 2024, according to Pew Research Center data.
That concentration of volume in sports-specific contracts is what elevates this case beyond a narrow jurisdictional dispute. If the Supreme Court sides with the Third Circuit and confirms CFTC exclusive jurisdiction, it would functionally federalize oversight of a betting category that state gambling commissions have regulated for decades under their own licensing, age, and integrity frameworks. The NFL's brief treats that outcome as a genuine threat to game integrity specifically because the CFTC's current self-certification process lets operators list new contracts the next business day, a standard far looser than what state sportsbooks must meet before offering a new type of wager.
How sports gaming attorneys are reading the filing
Sports gaming attorney Daniel Wallach said the brief "meaningfully increases the chances of a cert grant" in a post on X. He added:
"It is extremely telling that the sports league which has most forcefully advocated for federal regulation is essentially saying 'this ain't it.'"
Wallach also noted that former CFTC and SEC Chair Gary Gensler and former Senator Christopher Dodd, who helped pass Dodd-Frank, both filed briefs backing New Jersey's position.
Not every league has taken the NFL's confrontational posture. Major League Baseball named Polymarket its exclusive prediction market partner in March and signed a memorandum of understanding with the CFTC the same month, building on a 2024 letter MLB sent the agency calling for stronger integrity protections. The NHL became the first major league to license its trademarks to prediction markets, and DraftKings and FanDuel have each launched their own prediction market products. That divergence, one league pushing for Supreme Court review while others sign direct partnerships with the same operators, illustrates how unsettled the regulatory landscape remains across professional sports.
The NFL's brief, represented by former US Attorney General William Barr, asks the Court to resolve the question before the 2027 season begins. The league was explicit that it is not seeking to eliminate prediction markets outright. If the Court instead affirms the Third Circuit's ruling, the NFL said it would redouble efforts to push the CFTC, operators, and Congress toward stronger integrity protections ahead of the following season.
Bernstein analysts have projected prediction markets could represent a $10 trillion opportunity, while Robinhood CEO Vlad Tenev has said he expects crypto-based prediction contracts to eventually overtake traditional sports betting volume.
Roman Zaika
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