XRP closed August with a gain of nearly 30%, yet the more telling story sits in Binance's reserve data. CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost published an analysis showing that approximately 500 million XRP have left Binance since November 2025, with the monthly average of XRP reserves on the exchange falling from 3.1 billion to 2.6 billion tokens over that period. The current level requires going back to February 2024 to find a comparable reading.
The movement happened during a sustained price decline. XRP reached a high of $3.66 and has since fallen to around $1.35, a drawdown of 63%. Coins left the exchange as price dropped, which inverts the pattern associated with panic selling. Darkfost noted that Binance reserves have tended to increase during XRP price rebounds before declining again during each subsequent pullback, a rhythm that runs through the overall downward trend in exchange-held supply.
What is driving the exchange outflow
Darkfost laid out three explanations for the reserve decline. The first is long-term accumulation, with some holders removing tokens from the exchange into self-custody rather than maintaining balances available for immediate sale. The second connects directly to the launch of spot XRP ETFs in November and December 2025, which may have required XRP to be purchased on the open market to meet ETF demand. The third is operational, with Binance itself potentially adjusting its internal reserve distribution in response to customer demand patterns.
"Given the levels currently reached, there is little doubt that some investors are accumulating XRP," Darkfost wrote on CryptoQuant.
He framed the dynamic carefully:
"This sends a relatively positive signal for XRP, although this dynamic is more relevant from a long-term perspective than in terms of having a direct impact on the price in the short term."
The ETF channel that absorbed supply during the drawdown
Spot XRP ETFs launched in the United States in late 2025 after the SEC dropped its long-running lawsuit against Ripple, which had argued XRP sales constituted unregistered securities offerings. The SEC's decision to dismiss that case in 2025 cleared the path for ETF filings that had previously stalled at the approval stage. The Ripple lawsuit, filed in December 2020, had been one of the most closely watched enforcement actions in crypto, and its resolution removed the primary legal overhang that had prevented major asset managers from seeking XRP product approvals.
Bitwise reported on August 31 that its XRP ETF crossed $500 million in assets under management, nine months after launch.
"The Bitwise XRP ETF (XRP) crossed $500,000,000 in AUM — just 9 months after launch," the firm posted on X.
Whale Insider reported separately that Franklin, Canary, and Grayscale ETF clients combined to buy $14.38 million worth of XRP in a single session.
JUST IN: Franklin, Canary and Grayscale ETF clients buy a combined $14.38 million worth of $XRP. pic.twitter.com/KBTaMvxKRn
— Whale Insider (@WhaleInsider) September 2, 2026
Goldman Sachs disclosed approximately $86.5 million in XRP ETF exposure across five funds in its second-quarter Form 13F, after having exited all XRP and Solana ETF positions in the first quarter. The funds covered by Goldman's disclosure included products from Franklin Templeton, Bitwise, Canary Capital, 21Shares, and Grayscale. The re-entry confirmed that at least some institutional capital that left the XRP ETF market in Q1 returned during Q2, though the 13F does not identify whether positions are held for clients or the bank itself.
XRP's cumulative net inflows since spot ETF launch reached $1.57 billion, according to SoSoValue data, with year-to-date inflows near $400 million. That inflow figure accumulated while XRP's spot price sat well below its November 2024 peak, which means ETF buyers entered at depressed price levels relative to the cycle high. Whether that represents disciplined accumulation or misread timing depends on where XRP trades at the end of those investors' holding periods.
How XRP's exchange supply compares historically
Exchange reserve data tracks how much of a token's supply sits on centralized platforms versus in private wallets. Declining exchange reserves have historically been associated with reduced immediate sell pressure because tokens held off exchanges require an additional step, withdrawal to an exchange, before they can be sold. The signal is not deterministic. Tokens can return to exchanges quickly, and large holders sometimes move assets off exchanges for custody or yield-generation purposes that have no bearing on their sale intentions. In XRP's case, the February 2024 comparison point is notable because that period preceded a significant price recovery. XRP traded below $0.50 in early 2024 before climbing above $1 by mid-year and eventually reaching $3.66 near the cycle peak.
The current reserve level does not guarantee a repeat of that trajectory. Darkfost's framing treats the data as a longer-term positioning signal rather than a near-term price catalyst. The 500 million XRP that left Binance over less than a year represent a structural shift in where supply sits, not a prediction about when or whether price recovers from its 63% drawdown.
XRP's August performance of nearly 30% came alongside broader crypto market strength driven by the US Treasury's bond buyback announcement and renewed ETF inflows across Bitcoin and Ethereum as well. Whether that macro lift sustains into September depends on upcoming US labor market data and Federal Reserve rate decisions that will also shape Bitcoin and Ethereum's near-term direction.
Roman Zaika
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