Arkham Intelligence launched a trader ranking system for prediction markets Monday that scores participants by prediction accuracy rather than profit or capital size, a structure that allows a trader with 2,644 bets and no mention of his dollar figures to sit at the top of the leaderboard above a counterpart who has made $11.4 million.
The system, now live on Arkham's prediction markets analytics page, uses an Elo and MMR-style model commonly associated with competitive gaming and chess rankings.
"The rating uses an Elo/MMR-style system that ranks traders based on prediction accuracy," Arkham said on X. "Every correct prediction that a trader makes will increase their Elo score relative to other traders. Correct predictions at lower odds will increase a traders Elo by more than correct predictions at higher odds."
That design detail reshapes who climbs the rankings. A trader who correctly calls a low-probability outcome receives a larger score boost than a trader who wins on a heavily favored result. The mechanics reward both accuracy and the difficulty of the call, rather than the size of the account or the scale of the returns.
INTRODUCING: PREDICTION MARKET ELO
— Arkham (@arkham) June 29, 2026
Some traders consistently win on Polymarket, bet after bet.
We’ve created prediction market performance ratings (Elo) on Arkham Intel to help you find them. Here’s how it works: pic.twitter.com/NWg9WXxJIA
Two Polymarket traders show how the gap works
Arkham identified the highest Elo-ranked trader on Polymarket as a user named "GardenerCx," whose strategy centers on crypto up/down 5-minute markets. The account holds a 66% win rate across 2,523 bets and an Elo score of 2389.
The platform's highest-PnL trader goes by "swisstony," described by Arkham as a prolific sports bettor with $11.4 million in profit. That figure did not translate into a comparable Elo score.
"Despite his high sizing and PnL, his trades are less consistently profitable, and his win rate is slightly lower at 52.9%. This makes his Elo 1514, which is still in the top 7% of traders on Polymarket," Arkham said.
The contrast is the clearest illustration of what separates Arkham's approach from a standard profit-and-loss leaderboard. Swisstony outearns virtually every other Polymarket trader in raw dollar terms, but his accuracy rate trails GardenerCx by more than 11 percentage points, and that gap is what the Elo system penalizes.
"Ratings do not take bet sizing into account, so smaller but more accurate traders will rate higher than larger bettors with a lower win-rate," Arkham said on X.
Why the launch lands when it does
Arkham's rankings arrive as prediction markets attract a wave of new entrants from outside the crypto-native space. DraftKings, Robinhood, Meta, and Coinbase are each developing or broadening prediction market products, per reporting from multiple outlets. Polymarket and Kalshi have continued to see volume growth alongside that competitive expansion.
That environment creates demand for tools that can differentiate trader quality at scale. Until now, the most visible metrics on prediction market platforms were total profit figures, which favor accounts with large capital bases regardless of how often they are correct.
The Elo approach changes that frame. A trader who wins frequently on low-probability calls can outrank an account that has won more money but done so on safer outcomes. For users trying to identify which accounts are actually reading markets well rather than just betting large, the distinction matters.
Short-duration crypto markets and what the data shows
GardenerCx's focus on crypto up/down 5-minute markets is particularly suited to Elo evaluation. Short-duration binary markets generate a high volume of outcomes over a relatively short period, which gives a scoring model more data to assess whether accuracy is persistent or the result of a small sample. That volume also makes it harder to sustain a high win rate by chance alone.
At 2,644 resolved bets, GardenerCx's 64.3% accuracy sits across a dataset large enough that the result is unlikely to reflect short-term luck. The Elo score of 2389 reflects that persistence. By comparison, swisstony's 52.9% win rate, while still above average, is spread across much larger individual position sizes, which is why his PnL figure reaches $11.4 million despite lower odds-adjusted accuracy.
Arkham did not disclose how many total traders are ranked in the system or the full distribution of Elo scores across the Polymarket user base. The analytics page is live and publicly accessible.
Kristian Koch
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