Around 31,000 Bitcoin options contracts expired on July 3 with a notional value of $1.9 billion, a put-call ratio of 0.7, and a maximum pain point of $61,000, according to data from Greeks.live. The same session saw 135,000 Ethereum options contracts expire with a notional value of $230 million, a maximum pain point of $1,650, and a put-call ratio of 1.29.
The contrast between the two put-call ratios is notable. Bitcoin's 0.7 figure indicates more calls than puts in the expiring batch, while ETH's 1.29 shows put options outweigh calls by a meaningful margin. Greeks.live described ETH's put ratio as reaching "an extremely high proportion," which the firm said reflects surging demand for downside protection in Ether specifically.
Bitcoin reclaimed the $60,000 level during the week, but Greeks.live said that recovery did not change the broader trend.
"From a long-term perspective, the downtrend has not yet ended," the firm said. "Selling pressure from MicroStrategy and ETFs has completely shifted market consensus, the largest buyers have turned into sellers, which is a signal of an accelerating decline in any market transition from bull to bear."
July 3 Options Data
— Greeks.live (@GreeksLive) July 3, 2026
31,000 BTC options expired, with a put-call ratio of 0.7, a maximum pain point of $61,000, and a notional value of $1.9 billion.
135,000 ETH options expired, with a put-call ratio of 1.29, a maximum pain point of $1,650, and a notional value of $230 million.… pic.twitter.com/TLbWdla5fp
Where gamma exposure sits for both assets
Greeks.live said BTC gamma exposure, or GEX, was concentrated around the $60,000 strike, while ETH's GEX was centered near $1,700. Gamma exposure concentration at a specific price level tends to keep short-term price action anchored near that zone, because dealers hedging their options books increase buying or selling activity as prices approach those strikes.
The July 3 expiry followed the much larger end-of-quarter event the previous week, when approximately $11 billion in BTC and ETH options settled. That expiry kept the $60,000 to $62,000 BTC range under close watch. The July 3 data shows that zone remained the focal point for dealer hedging even after the quarterly event cleared.
Greeks.live also noted that BTC's 25-delta skew remained negative across short-term maturities in a separate market note, with put options continuing to trade at a premium to calls. The firm said the strongest demand was concentrated in near-term contracts, which it interpreted as traders hedging immediate downside risk rather than repositioning their long-term exposure.
Despite a mild recovery BTC's 25 delta skew remains heavily skewed toward downside protection, with front end maturities continuing to trade near the most negative levels of the quarter. Current readings stand at -11.0% (1D), -11.0% (7D), and -8.0% (1M), highlighting persistent… pic.twitter.com/wrq0nBkLsh
— Greeks.live (@GreeksLive) June 30, 2026
ETF outflows and the pressure on sentiment
The cautious options setup followed several weeks of sustained selling pressure from spot Bitcoin ETFs. US spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded nearly $1.79 billion in weekly outflows, their largest withdrawal of 2026, according to SoSoValue data. Greeks.live attributed part of the market's directional shift to this change in the ETF holder base.
Strategy's capital framework update earlier in the week, which authorized Bitcoin sales to fund preferred dividends, added to that narrative. Greeks.live said the company's shift from buyer to conditional seller, combined with ETF outflows, "has completely shifted market consensus." CoinGlass options data showed total BTC options open interest declining after the large quarterly expiry, which can reduce market depth even when traders maintain put demand.
Q3 outlook and where market attention has moved
Greeks.live said crypto's Q3 outlook remains weak against the current backdrop. The firm pointed to a rotation of market attention toward US equities, artificial intelligence, semiconductors, and tokenized US stock products.
"It will be a long time before the buzz around AI and semiconductors shifts back to crypto," the firm said. "Against this backdrop, the outlook for crypto in Q3 remains bleak."
The ETH options data adds a specific dimension to that picture. A put-call ratio above 1.0 in a weekly expiry is unusual and reflects a market where protective positioning has overtaken directional bets in Ether. ETH has faced additional structural headwinds in 2026 as attention and liquidity concentrated in Bitcoin ETF products and as Layer 2 consolidation reduced some on-chain activity metrics.
Greeks.live's July 3 post described the current period as one where market concerns about another downturn are "evident" based on the options data, particularly in ETH.
Gunel Ismayilova
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