Bitcoin surged past the $80,000 level on May 4, marking a decisive move above a resistance zone that had capped price action in recent sessions. According to data from TradingView, the asset briefly reached around $80,500 before stabilizing near $79,800.
The move represents a nearly 3% daily gain and extends Bitcoin’s monthly rally to over 20%. The breakout also aligns with broader gains across the crypto market. Ethereum rose close to 3%, while XRP, BNB, and Solana posted moderate increases.
Project Freedom reshapes market sentiment
The rally followed a geopolitical development tied to Donald Trump, who announced “Project Freedom” in a Truth Social post on May 3. The initiative aims to escort stranded cargo ships through restricted waterways affected by tensions between the United States and Iran.
Trump stated:
“I am fully aware that my Representatives are having very positive discussions with the Country of Iran, and that these discussions could lead to something very positive for all.”
The plan reportedly went into effect on May 4. Despite its humanitarian framing, Iranian officials warned that any U.S. intervention in the Strait of Hormuz could violate the fragile ceasefire and trigger a forceful response, as reported by CNN.
Markets reacted to both the operational launch of the initiative and signals of ongoing diplomatic engagement. The shift in tone around U.S.-Iran relations coincided with renewed risk appetite across global markets.
Short squeeze accelerates upside
Bitcoin’s rapid move above $80,000 triggered a wave of liquidations in the derivatives market. Data from CoinGlass shows that more than $160 million in Bitcoin short positions were liquidated, contributing to over $370 million in total short liquidations across the crypto market within 24 hours.
Veteran trader Peter Brandt offered a longer-term perspective that contrasts with the current bullish momentum. In comments, he pointed to Bitcoin’s historical four-year halving cycle as the primary framework for future price action.
“I am not calling for a low until Sep/Oct 2026. It is not necessary for the recent low to be penetrated. We could get a rally and then chop sideways to down. Worst case would be a move back into the lower green banana peel which would be into the 50s, maybe high 40s. Then blast off for $250k and a high in late 2029,” Brandt said.
Institutional flows support the rally
Institutional demand continues to play a central role. U.S. spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds recorded a fifth consecutive week of net inflows, with approximately $153 million added last week, according to SoSoValue data.
Over a longer horizon, ETF inflows reached roughly $3.29 billion across the past two months. Total cumulative inflows since launch stand near $58.72 billion, still below the October 2025 peak of $61.19 billion.
Recent weeks also showed stronger acceleration. Around $2.7 billion entered ETFs over a three-week period, pushing total net assets above $100 billion. This flow of capital provides consistent support from institutional investors, even as market structure remains mixed.
Prediction market data from Polymarket reflects cautious optimism. Traders assign a 53% probability to Bitcoin reaching $85,000 this month, while the likelihood of $90,000 stands at 25%. The spread suggests expectations of gradual upside rather than a sharp breakout.
Traditional markets show stability
Commodity markets remained relatively stable alongside crypto gains. West Texas Intermediate traded near $104 per barrel, while Brent Crude hovered around $110.
Safe-haven assets such as gold and silver edged lower, while equity markets in Asia moved higher. Indices including the Nikkei 225 and Hang Seng Index closed in positive territory, reflecting improved investor sentiment.
Macro data in focus
Attention now turns to upcoming U.S. labor market data. The May 7 initial jobless claims report may influence expectations around Federal Reserve policy and interest rates.
At the same time, geopolitical developments and ETF flows remain key drivers. Market participants continue to monitor both for confirmation of sustained momentum or signs of reversal.
Roman Zaika
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