Prediction markets have entered a sharper phase of global regulatory attention as Ireland and India both stepped up scrutiny of platforms such as Polymarket and Kalshi. The developments reflect growing concerns among governments over financial integrity, cross-border enforcement gaps, and the use of crypto-based betting systems outside traditional gambling frameworks.
Irish Finance Minister Simon Harris described prediction markets as a “wild, wild west” while ordering a detailed investigation into suspicious betting activity linked to a Dublin Central by-election. At the same time, India moved to block access to Polymarket and signaled potential restrictions on Kalshi, highlighting how different jurisdictions are responding to the same emerging sector through separate legal tools.
Ireland orders investigation into suspicious betting patterns
Authorities in Ireland have begun a coordinated review of prediction market activity after reports of unusual betting behavior tied to the Dublin Central by-election on Polymarket. According to The Irish Times, accounts placed multiple wagers on candidate Gerry “The Monk” Hutch to lose the election under patterns described as “highly suspicious betting behavior.”
Officials have not linked any candidate or campaign to wrongdoing. However, the betting activity raised concerns about possible financial misconduct. Experts cited in reporting pointed to potential risks such as money laundering, market manipulation, or coordinated attempts to distort market activity.
Simon Harris instructed officials to coordinate with the Department of Justice, An Garda Síochána, the Gambling Regulator, and the Central Bank of Ireland. He described the situation as an issue that extends beyond gambling oversight.
“This is a relatively new and emerging issue,” Harris said.
He outlined two areas of concern: gambling regulation and broader financial integrity risks. He also referenced crypto-linked activity on prediction platforms.
“There’s the element of gambling and, therefore, the potential role for the gambling regulator […] and then secondly, the potential concern that this is a vehicle that could be used in terms of money-laundering as well.”
Harris later escalated his language, describing prediction markets tied to cryptocurrency as a “wild, wild west.” He said activity appeared “secretive, murky, and unregulated,” which raised concern about how quickly such platforms operate across borders.
Suspicious trading patterns and insider concerns
Attention in Ireland also connects to broader international reporting on prediction markets. The New York Times investigation identified more than 11,000 Polymarket accounts showing unusual betting patterns tied to geopolitical events, including wagers surrounding a US ceasefire announcement regarding Iran.
The report described patterns such as newly created accounts, consistent profits, and well-timed long-shot bets. These signals aligned with concerns often associated with insider trading, although no formal conclusions or charges were confirmed in that context.
India blocks Polymarket under online gaming law
India escalated enforcement against prediction markets through a regulatory and technical crackdown. The Ministry of Electronics and Information Technology (MeitY) confirmed that Polymarket had been blocked in the country after being classified as an “illegal and blocked prediction market and online betting platform.”
The action followed enforcement under the Promotion and Regulation of Online Gaming Act 2025, which treats prediction markets as “online money games” and bans them under Indian law. Internet service providers were instructed to block access to the platform.
Kalshi, a US Commodity Futures Trading Commission-regulated platform, remains accessible for now. However, government sources cited in reporting indicated that a blocking order may follow, showing a broader tightening stance.
India’s position treats prediction markets as speculative gambling rather than financial innovation. Authorities also referenced concerns about financial stability and capital controls.
Enforcement expands to VPNs and crypto payments
India’s crackdown extends beyond platform access. MeitY issued an advisory warning VPN providers and intermediaries that they must comply with due diligence requirements under IT Rules 2021. The ministry said users were bypassing restrictions using VPN services.
The advisory stated:
“It is observed that certain users are circumventing the legal restrictions imposed on such platforms by misusing VPN services to access these websites. In addition, such users are engaging in financial transactions through conversion of ₹ into virtual digital assets such as USD Coin (USDC) or other stablecoins, thereby enabling participation in such platforms despite domestic prohibitions,” the MeitY advisory, dated April 25, read.
Officials also highlighted concerns about stablecoin usage and cross-border financial flows linked to prediction markets.
Market activity continues despite restrictions
Even with restrictions, activity has persisted. Bloomberg reported trading volume spikes tied to Indian Premier League cricket matches, with one event generating $27.7 million across prediction platforms. However, the share of Indian users remains unclear.
India’s enforcement actions have already affected related “opinion trading” platforms. Some services such as TradeX shifted away from real-money markets, while others reduced operations in specific regions following regulatory pressure and investigations.
Wider global pressure on prediction markets
Ireland and India join a growing list of jurisdictions tightening oversight. Brazil has blocked access to Polymarket and Kalshi. Regulators in Portugal, Hungary, and New Zealand have taken similar actions. Argentina issued a nationwide injunction against Polymarket in March.
Earlier incidents have also intensified scrutiny. Israeli authorities charged a military officer with allegedly using classified information to place bets on Polymarket. French authorities investigated unusual betting activity tied to airport temperature data after alerts from national meteorological services.
Expanding regulatory divide
The diverging responses highlight a fragmented global approach. The United States allows prediction markets under Commodity Futures Trading Commission oversight, although legal disputes with state regulators continue. Outside the US, many governments are applying gambling, financial, or cybersecurity laws to restrict access.
Ireland’s focus on financial integrity and India’s outright blocking approach reflect two different enforcement paths, but both point toward the same concern: prediction markets now operate at the intersection of betting, crypto finance, and real-world political and economic events, often faster than existing regulatory systems can adapt.
Anastasiia G
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