Ether is trading around $2,332 on Oct. 26 after a weekend dip below $2,300, according to CoinMarketCap data. Traders now disagree on whether $2,000 is back in play or whether the dip is a trap for sellers.
A Foundation sale lands on a weak tape
Onchain Lens reported that the Ethereum Foundation sold 2,785 ETH, about $6.42 million, through CoWSwap for USDS. Trader Ted Pillows put the figure at $6,437,000 and wrote:
"They always have the worst timing when it comes to selling Ethereum."
The sale is small next to a market cap of about $282.38 billion. The supplied data does not establish its market impact, and the report does not explain why the Foundation sold. Two wallets historically linked to the Foundation also moved 4,393 ETH to Kraken earlier in October.
Bear trap or breakdown
Crypto trader Joep Gerla wrote:
"We're still in the manipulation zone on $ETH, but my bias stays bullish."
We’re still in the manipulation zone on $ETH, but my bias stays bullish.
— Joep Gerla (@CryptoGerla) October 26, 2026
Shakeouts like this are where weak hands get cleared before the move up. pic.twitter.com/1gqxl174Zd
He described shakeouts like this one as the point where weak hands get cleared before the move up.
Carl Moon was more direct:
"$ETH is setting up for a massive bear trap." He added: "This is precisely what happened in 2023 before ETH rallied 100%."
$ETH is setting up for a massive bear trap.
— Carl Moon 🌙 (@carlmoon) October 26, 2026
This is precisely what happened in 2023 before ETH rallied 100%. pic.twitter.com/BwurX5HfYt
The charts present insights for both bullish and bearish perspectives. ETH is currently retesting the 200-day exponential moving average, and there is a risk of a drop to $2,000 if this support level fails. Immediate support is identified between $2,285 and $2,300, with $2,360 marking the first recovery test and $2,400 as the next significant level to watch.
A move to $2,000 would not be new ground. Ethereum fell below $2,000 on May 28, 2026, the first time since March.
ETF outflows and exchange flows
SoSoValue data shows U.S. spot Ethereum ETFs have posted net outflows for four straight weeks. The largest was $542.07 million in the week ending Oct. 9, and the latest was $224.96 million in the week ending Oct. 22. Total net assets fell from $17.78 billion on Sept. 25 to $14.57 billion. Oct. 23 brought a small net inflow of $4.35 million.
One fund drives most of it. BlackRock's ETHA saw about $1.01 billion exit, about 93% of total outflows since early October, 24/7 Wall St. reported.
A net withdrawal of 169,770 ETH from centralized exchanges was on Oct. 24, the largest single-day outflow in over four months. A similar pattern on June 5 was followed by a local price bottom. Historical trends do not guarantee a future rebound. Lookonchain flagged 93,184 ETH in whale long positions with liquidation levels at $2,256.45 and $2,226.53.
Fed day and an upgrade test
The Fed announces its rate decision on Oct. 28, with the announcement set for 2:00 PM ET. In September it raised the federal funds target range by 25 basis points to 3.75%-4.00%. Polymarket puts the odds of a hold at 94%. September PCE inflation and third-quarter GDP data are scheduled for Oct. 29. Bitcoin lost the $80,000 level over the weekend, and Ethereum options also face an expiry, with 322,586 contracts worth around $777 million and a reported max pain price of $2,500.
Ethereum's Glamsterdam upgrade was set to activate on the Hoodi testnet on October 26, 2026 but As HODLFM reported, developers postponed Glamsterdam testing over smart contract concerns.
Roman Zaika
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