ARK Invest has partnered with Kalshi to expand the role of prediction markets in institutional investment workflows, as firms test new ways to interpret risk and forward-looking data, according to the announcement.
The collaboration introduces prediction market signals into ARK’s research and portfolio strategy. The firm plans to evaluate how probability-based data can complement its existing frameworks, which include fundamental and quantitative analysis. The change is part of a bigger trend in which investors want tools that show real-time expectations instead of static forecasts.
Prediction markets aggregate views from participants and convert them into probability signals tied to future events. These indicators update continuously and reflect changes in sentiment as new information appears. ARK said it will monitor such markets to understand how they can improve decision-making across disruptive sectors.
Three use cases shape the partnership
ARK outlined three main applications for prediction markets within finance. The first focuses on market-based research indicators. They offer an extra input that represents the expectations of a large number of participants. The firm sees this as a way to strengthen its research process with real-time data.
The second use case centers on forward-looking insight into business outcomes. Markets tied to key performance indicators such as production volumes, deliveries, regulatory approvals, and technological milestones offer expectations about future performance. ARK plans to track these indicators to refine its outlook on companies and sectors.
The third use case addresses event-specific risk management. Investors can use prediction markets to hedge exposure to discrete outcomes. These include company developments, macroeconomic releases, and sector-wide risks that influence portfolio performance.
Some of these markets already operate on Kalshi. They include contracts linked to nonfarm productivity and the U.S. deficit-to-GDP ratio. ARK will study how these signals integrate into its research process and portfolio planning.
Executives highlight shift in financial research
“Bringing prediction markets into institutional workflows is a natural next step for innovation in financial research,” said Cathie Wood. “We believe these signals can enhance our research process and provide valuable context around key drivers across disruptive sectors, helping investors better quantify uncertainty and make more informed decisions.”
Nick Grous, ARK’s Director of Research, emphasized the role of these markets in risk assessment.
“We believe prediction markets offer some of the purest expressions of risk around key economic and company-specific outcomes,” he said in the statement.
Kalshi CEO Tarek Mansour pointed to growing institutional demand on X.
“As institutional adoption of prediction markets grows, Kalshi is seeing increased demand for a formal market request pipeline to help investors leverage the wisdom of the crowd,” he said. “This was a huge part of the original vision for Kalshi: pricing everything so that the world’s most important institutions could make better decisions.”
Data moves beyond trading use
The initiative places prediction market data alongside ARK’s broader research efforts, which include tracking market trends, policy events, and company milestones. The firm said it will use Kalshi data to monitor real-time expectations tied to trading activity, regulatory developments, and technological progress.
In a post on X, Wood stated that ARK has worked with Kalshi to list markets tied to macroeconomic releases and scientific milestones. Kalshi confirmed that several of these markets are already live, including contracts linked to non-farm payrolls, deficit-to-GDP ratios, and business key performance indicators.
At @ARKInvest, we’re always looking for new tools that can sharpen our research and improve how we make investment decisions. Prediction markets are not just a new derivatives market — they represent a powerful new way to quantify risk and surface forward-looking insights.
— Cathie Wood (@CathieDWood) March 26, 2026
We’ve… https://t.co/BLFzORsaVK
This approach shows how prediction markets extend beyond trading. Firms now test their value as decision-making tools that complement surveys and traditional models.
Research supports growing institutional interest
Recent research highlights similar trends. A paper from the U.S. Federal Reserve described Kalshi’s macro markets as a “high-frequency, continuously updated, distributionally rich benchmark” for researchers and policymakers. The study compared prediction market data with surveys and market-based forecasts and found that these markets provide a real-time view of shifting expectations.
Academic work has also examined how prediction markets respond to major events. Research using Polymarket data from the 2024 U.S. presidential election tracked how traders reacted to debates, political shocks, and campaign developments. The findings showed rapid adjustments in positions as new information emerged.
Institutional adoption gains momentum
Prediction markets have expanded rapidly in recent years. Monthly trading volumes have exceeded $10 billion, driven by interest from both retail participants and institutions. Platforms such as Kalshi have positioned themselves as regulated venues that can support broader adoption.
ARK’s partnership with Kalshi marks another step in that direction. The firm plans to test how probability signals can improve research accuracy and risk management. The results may shape how institutional investors integrate prediction markets into their workflows.
The collaboration signals a shift in how financial data gets interpreted. Firms now look beyond traditional indicators and explore tools that reflect real-time expectations. Prediction markets, once limited to niche use cases, now move closer to the core of institutional finance.
Gunel Ismayilova
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