VanEck CEO Jan van Eck said Bitcoin is nearing a local bottom, even as he described 2026 as the fourth year of a historical bear phase tied to the asset’s halving cycle.
Speaking on CNBC on March 2, van Eck stated:
“There’s been an investing cycle, Bitcoin goes up three years in a row, goes down pretty massively in that fourth year. 2026 is that fourth year. So that’s why we are in a Bitcoin bear market. So I think we can overcomplicate it. Now I think we are making a bottom.”
He added:
“Our view coming into 2026 is that Bitcoin is governed by limited supply at 21 million, and the halving cycle where the Bitcoin miners who run the network get paid half the number of Bitcoin every four years.”
Van Eck argued that the four-year halving cycle continues to drive price action rather than changes in fundamentals. He said his firm expects Bitcoin to gradually rise later this year as the cycle matures.
Price stabilizes near key levels
At the time of writing on March 3, Bitcoin traded near $68,182 after a 3.3% daily gain and an 8.1% weekly increase. The asset rebounded from February lows in the $60,000 to $62,000 range and consolidated around $67,000 to $68,000.
Technical levels have drawn close attention from market participants. The $62,500 area held after three separate tests, according to 10x Research. The firm noted that Bitcoin has stopped declining amid negative news flow and described the current phase as a “tactical shift,” while emphasizing that no structural reversal has occurred and that the asset remains in a broader bear market.
Momentum indicators show easing seller pressure. The relative strength index has turned higher, and Bitcoin attempts to remain above its 20-day moving average near $68,500.
Resistance remains near $70,000. A broader supply zone sits between $75,000 and $80,000. A sustained move above $72,000 would support the view that the corrective phase has ended. Failure to hold current levels would reinforce the longer-term bearish structure outlined by van Eck.
Institutional flows contrast with retail sentiment
Recent inflows into U.S.-listed spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds reached more than $1.1 billion in the past week, according to SoSoValue data. The figures suggest continued institutional participation during the recent price consolidation.
Retail sentiment has fluctuated. The Fear and Greed Index reflected caution after Bitcoin dipped into the low $60,000s in February. Santiment reported a surge in positive social media sentiment when the price risked falling below $65,000. In the following hours, Bitcoin gained 7% and reached a local high of $69,900 before encountering seller resistance.
Santiment analysts warned that the move toward $70,000 may reflect a short-term retail-driven pump and noted the risk of sustained volatility. They stated that future price direction depends heavily on global news and macroeconomic conditions.
Diverging views on market structure
Debate continues over the relevance of the four-year cycle. Critics argue that structural changes, including strong demand for spot ETFs, a weaker U.S. dollar and regulatory shifts, have altered market dynamics. Van Eck dismissed claims that the cycle has lost influence and framed the current drawdown as typical of past fourth-year corrections.
Bitcoin had fully recovered from its earlier decline tied to geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. Van Eck linked part of the recent price recovery to escalating tensions between Israel and Iran. He described the Middle East as friendly to digital assets and said blockchain-based payments offer greater efficiency and reliability than traditional financial systems.
Justin d’Anethan, head of research at Arctic Digital, said the crypto market reaction to external shocks has become more measured. He noted that potential tariffs, geopolitical tensions and high interest rates have not triggered a price collapse. According to d’Anethan, seller exhaustion and gradual buyer accumulation have created conditions for consolidation.
Andri Fauzan Adjiima, head of research at Bitrue, attributed the rebound from $63,000 in part to derivatives market dynamics. Negative funding rates led to a short squeeze and mass liquidation of short positions, which eased immediate downside pressure. He said confirmation of a sustained uptrend would require new capital inflows and macroeconomic support.
No clear structural reversal yet
Despite recent gains, 10x Research cautioned that there are no definitive signs of an exit from the global bear trend. The firm highlighted reduced volatility, ETF inflows and the disappearance of Bitcoin’s discount on Coinbase as constructive signals. It maintained that the broader structure remains bearish.
Van Eck acknowledged the downturn but described recent price action as “a very nice sign of life.” He believes the market may be in the process of bottom formation rather than structural breakdown.
Bitcoin now stands at a technical crossroads. Support near $60,000 has held through repeated tests. Resistance near $70,000 caps the short-term advance. The coming weeks will test whether the four-year cycle thesis once again shapes the path of the world’s largest cryptocurrency.
Anastasiia G
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