Sam Bankman-Fried, the founder of FTX who was found guilty, has gotten more public praise for the U.S. President Donald Trump, who had previously been politically aligned with Democrats, and has changed his mind. The comments surfaced days after Caroline Ellison, former CEO of Alameda Research and a central witness in his criminal trial, was released from federal custody after serving 440 days.
In recent posts on X, Bankman-Fried wrote that “@realdonaldtrump is right on crypto,” while criticizing former President Joe Biden, whom he said “bungled crypto.” He placed particular blame on Biden’s appointment of Gary Gensler as chair of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
The timing and tone of the remarks have fueled speculation that Bankman-Fried is attempting to position himself for a presidential pardon as he continues to appeal his conviction from prison.
Prediction markets assign a 14% chance of a pardon
Speculation around a potential pardon has moved beyond commentary and into prediction markets. On the crypto-based platform Polymarket, traders currently assign a 14% probability that Trump will pardon Bankman-Fried before 2027.
The market reflects collective expectations rather than legal outcomes, but it provides a measurable snapshot of sentiment around Bankman-Fried’s political pivot. His conviction stems from the collapse of FTX in November 2022, one of the largest failures in crypto history.
A jury convicted Bankman-Fried on seven felony counts in November 2023. A federal judge sentenced him to 25 years in prison in March 2024. In November 2025, he filed an appeal with the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Second Circuit, where the case remains pending.
Ellison release renews attention on the FTX case
The renewed focus on Bankman-Fried followed the release of Caroline Ellison, who played a central role in the prosecution’s case. Ellison cooperated with authorities and testified against Bankman-Fried, offering detailed accounts of internal practices at Alameda Research and FTX.
Her release after 440 days in custody reopened public discussion around cooperation agreements, sentencing disparities, and accountability in complex financial crime cases. The proximity of her release to Bankman-Fried’s public statements intensified scrutiny of his motives.
Praise extends beyond crypto policy
Bankman-Fried’s recent statements extended beyond digital asset regulation. He publicly praised what he described as Trump’s arrest of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro, calling the move “smart, gutsy, and pro-democracy.”
The remarks suggested a broader effort to align with Trump’s foreign policy posture, particularly on issues tied to sanctions and financial oversight.
At the same time, he questioned the direction of the Democratic administration that he once supported with significant political donations. While he acknowledged that “plenty in the party had reasonable thoughts,” he criticized the choice of Gary Gensler as SEC chair.
“All the world leaders I met were fed up with Biden,” Bankman-Fried said.
10) All the world leaders I met were fed up with Biden. With the hypocrisy and condescension of the Dems.
— SBF (@SBF_FTX) January 30, 2026
'Stop drilling for oil!' Then: 'why is oil so expensive?'
Biden's DOJ put a gag order on me in 2023. https://t.co/dmTx74xUlM
Regulatory leadership shift reshapes expectations
Gensler stepped down in January 2025, ahead of Trump’s inauguration. His tenure featured aggressive enforcement actions against crypto firms, a stance that drew criticism from industry participants who sought clearer rulemaking.
Trump appointed Paul Atkins as SEC chair in April 2025. Atkins is widely viewed in crypto circles as more favorable toward market-led innovation and clearer compliance pathways. His appointment has already influenced expectations around regulatory tone, though no policy reversals tied to the FTX case have emerged.
The leadership change has shaped the backdrop against which Bankman-Fried’s comments have landed, even as his legal position remains unchanged.
A dramatic political reversal
Before FTX collapsed, Bankman-Fried ranked among the most prominent political donors aligned with Democratic causes. He publicly supported regulatory engagement and frequently met with lawmakers across Washington.
His recent embrace of Trump stands in contrast to that history. While Bankman-Fried has not directly asked for clemency, the shift has prompted widespread interpretation as a strategic repositioning rather than a spontaneous ideological change.
Confirmation of his remarks circulated across industry channels. His February 2025 interview with the New York Sun and March appearance with Tucker Carlson helped bring broader attention to the episode.
Legal reality remains unchanged
Despite speculation, Bankman-Fried’s legal status remains fixed. A presidential pardon would require direct executive action and carries significant political and public implications, especially in a case that has come to symbolize excess and mismanagement within the crypto sector.
Public rhetoric alone rarely determines clemency decisions. Appeals, post-conviction motions, and sentencing reviews remain the primary mechanisms available within the judicial system.
The story highlights the deep entanglement between crypto, regulation, and politics. For market participants, shifts in regulatory leadership influence capital allocation, compliance strategy, and long-term planning.
At the same time, the continued attention on Bankman-Fried highlights unresolved tensions around accountability, enforcement, and political influence in high-profile financial crimes. His case continues to shape how investors, policymakers, and the public view the crypto industry’s maturation process.
Whether the speculation around a pardon fades or intensifies, the broader implications extend beyond one individual. They speak to how power, policy, and perception intersect in an industry still defining its relationship with the state.
Gunel Ismayilova
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