US President Donald Trump said Thursday he will name his choice for the next Federal Reserve chair on Friday morning. The announcement comes as speculation intensifies around the successor to current Fed Chair Jerome Powell, whose term ends in May.
Speaking at the premiere of the film “Melania,” Trump told reporters, “I’ll be announcing the Fed chair tomorrow morning.” When asked if he had settled on a choice, he replied, “I do, I better, otherwise I have to go to work very quickly.”
Bloomberg reported that former Fed Governor Kevin Warsh is expected to receive the nomination. Warsh, 55, served on the Federal Reserve Board of Governors from 2006 to 2011 under Presidents George W. Bush and Barack Obama. He later joined Morgan Stanley and currently acts as a Stanford Hoover Institution fellow.
Warsh favored by prediction markets
Prediction markets reacted swiftly to reports of Warsh’s expected nomination. On Polymarket, his odds surged to 99%, up from 39% earlier in the day. Kalshi placed his probability at 98%. David Bahnsen, chief investment officer of The Bahnsen Group, said on CNBC,
“He has the respect and credibility of the financial markets.” Bahnsen added, “There was no person who was going to get this job who wasn’t going to be cutting rates in the short term. However, I believe longer term he will be a credible candidate.”
James Thorne, chief market strategist of Wellington-Altus Private Wealth, described Warsh as a candidate who “uniquely combines market credibility with a clear willingness to reset policy in a more disciplined, rules‑based direction.” Thorne highlighted Warsh’s prior Fed experience and close ties to influential market figures as factors that could allow coordination between monetary policy, Treasury strategy, and the White House without undermining the Fed’s institutional legitimacy.
Monetary hawk with a Bitcoin-friendly stance
Warsh has earned a reputation as a monetary hawk who favors tighter policy. Renaissance Macro Research noted,
“Kevin Warsh has been monetary policy hawk his entire career and most importantly, during a time when the labor markets fell out of bed. His dovishness today stems from convenience. The President risks getting duped.”
Warsh also holds a more favorable view of Bitcoin than Powell, who has largely dismissed its role in the US economy. In a 2018 Wall Street Journal opinion piece, Warsh described Bitcoin as a potential “sustainable store of value, like gold,” adding, “Even if you're not buying crypto assets, bitcoin's boom-and-bust cycle is worth watching.”
In a July interview with the Hoover Institution, he stated,
“Bitcoin doesn't trouble me. I think of it as an important asset that can help inform policymakers when they're doing things right and wrong. I think it can often be a very good policeman for policy.”
Trump’s selection process and final candidates
The process to choose Powell’s replacement began in August with an 11-candidate field that included past and current Fed officials, economists, and Wall Street professionals. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent screened the candidates, narrowing the list first to five and then to four. The final group reportedly included Warsh, Kevin Hassett, Christopher Waller, and Rick Rieder.
Trump said his pick is “somebody that could have been there a few years ago.” Warsh was considered for the position back in 2017, when Trump eventually nominated Powell. A White House official told CNBC,
“President Trump will make an announcement about his pick for the Federal Reserve at the appropriate juncture. Any and all reporting on the Federal Reserve Chairman nominations process until then is a waste of everyone’s time.”
Market response
Markets have reacted to Warsh’s expected nomination. The US dollar strengthened, and Treasury yields rose, reflecting expectations that a more hawkish Fed chair could signal a disciplined approach to inflation and potential rate cuts in the medium term.
Warsh’s combination of institutional credibility, hawkish policy leanings, and openness to digital assets such as Bitcoin could position him as a chair capable of maintaining market confidence while navigating complex economic conditions.
Anastasiia G
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