Zcash (ZEC) has fallen more than 65% from its record high near $775 in November 2025. The token traded around the $223 range after a prolonged decline across the privacy-coin sector and the wider crypto market. Price action reflects sustained selling pressure and weak demand at higher levels.
CoinGecko data show that ZEC has lost more than half of its value in the last month and is still well below important resistance levels. The asset also fell for several days in a row, which made traders and long-term holders even more bearish.
Broader crypto weakness contributed to the slide. Bitcoin dropped toward the $70,000 support area during the same period, which triggered large liquidations across the market and affected privacy tokens such as Monero, Dash, and Horizen. ZEC moved in line with that downturn.
Technical charts point to continued downside risk
Short-term technical structures show a fragile setup. On the four-hour timeframe, price entered a breakdown phase within a bear pennant formation. The pattern emerged after a steep drop followed by consolidation in a triangle-like structure. In my experience, the structure often resolves in the direction of the prior move.
Based on this setup, downside targets sit near mid-$100 range if the breakdown continues. ZEC also failed to reclaim the 20-period exponential moving average on the four-hour chart, which sits near the $293 range. Repeated rejection at that level reinforces the bearish case.
Daily chart structures show similar weakness. Price slipped below a symmetrical triangle and trades under major moving averages. A similar breakdown in January 2025 led to a correction of more than 46%. If that historical pattern repeats, technical projections open downside risk toward the mid-$100 range by March.
On the weekly chart, ZEC trades inside a falling wedge. Compression toward the apex points to potential targets near $196. A break below wedge support could push the token toward the 100-week EMA and Fibonacci levels near $155.
Momentum indicators also confirm weakness. MACD readings remain negative, RSI sits near oversold territory, and other indicators signal persistent selling pressure. Intraday sessions show price gaps and sustained volatility.
Structural and regulatory pressures weigh on sentiment
Anton Kharitonov, an expert at Traders Union, described the technical backdrop as weak across timeframes.
"There are simply no compelling signs of reversal or support, so traders should stay defensive until persistent risks subside," he states.
Market participants keep track of non-technical factors that influence Zcash. Investor confidence weakened after the resignation of the Electric Coin Company’s core development team earlier this year. The team reaffirmed its commitment to the project, yet uncertainty around the roadmap persists.
Regulatory scrutiny also affects sentiment. Several jurisdictions have tightened oversight on privacy coins, and Dubai’s financial regulator banned Zcash from use on licensed exchanges and institutions within the Dubai International Financial Centre. Such moves limit access and liquidity in certain markets.
Exchange support stays inconsistent as well. Some platforms support shielded deposits but not shielded withdrawals, which complicates privacy for self-custody users.
Market outlook
Recent trading activity shows limited buying interest near lower price zones. Support areas near $220 have weakened, and price now tests lower demand regions. Technical structures still show a clear downtrend on daily and intraday timeframes.
ZEC tries to stabilize around the mid-$200 range, but there is still strong resistance above previous demand zones. To recover, prices need to break above key moving averages and trendlines that are going down. Until those signals appear, downside risk persists.
The broader crypto environment also shapes near-term direction. Risk-off sentiment and regulatory uncertainty keep influencing privacy-focused assets. As the market looks for a new balance, Zcash is still affected by those things.
Matvii Diadkov
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