XRP has entered a prolonged downturn marked by realized losses, weaker network demand, and a divided market outlook. Recent on-chain data, derivatives positioning, and price structure point to sustained pressure on the asset as investors reassess risk.
Data from Glassnode shows the Spent Output Profit Ratio for XRP fell from 1.16 on July 25, 2025 to 0.96. A reading below 1 reflects coins sold at a loss. The metric last entered a similar range between September 2021 and May 2022, a period that preceded months of consolidation before price stabilization.
XRP lost its aggregate holder cost basis, triggering panic selling.
— glassnode (@glassnode) February 9, 2026
• SOPR (7D EMA) fell from 1.16 (Jul ’25) to 0.96 (now)
• Holders are realizing significant losses
• On-chain profitability flipped negative
This setup closely resembles the Sep 2021–May 2022 phase, where SOPR… https://t.co/FejyV1CiuU pic.twitter.com/MYo27V6hTf
Loss realization accelerated as the price trended downward from mid-2025. XRP dropped about 27% from $3.5 in mid-July to $2.4 by late October.
Psychological thresholds and realized losses shape price action
The price fell below $2 in mid-November. The 30-day estimated market average of daily realized losses climbed to $75 million. Each retest of the $2 level since the start of the year triggered weekly realized losses between $500 million and $1.2 billion. The level now acts as a psychological reference point for holders.
At the latest reading, XRP trades around the mid-$1 range after losing its aggregate holder cost basis. Panic selling followed the shift below key levels. The debate now centers on whether the move reflects capitulation or a deeper structural issue.
Stronger fundamentals relative to 2022, when regulatory clarity remained uncertain. The present environment still faces pressure from macro conditions, liquidity shifts, and capital rotation into traditional safe-haven assets.
Price structure shows resistance above and fragile support below
XRP traded between roughly $1.38 and $1.46 over the past 24 hours, according to The TradingView data.
The asset remains about 60% below its July 2025 peak. A monthly chart referenced by crypto analyst Crypto Patel shows resistance above current prices and an accumulation zone lower down.
The analysis raises a central question: whether XRP moves toward double-digit targets or revisits $1 first. The chart structure indicates a higher probability of a move toward $1 before any sustained push upward. A repeat of the 2018 collapse from $3.28 to $0.105 appears unlikely under current conditions, but a controlled retracement below $1 remains possible.
Crypto Patel highlighted a potential accumulation range between $0.70 and $0.50 if price drops further. The $1 level stands as a possible entry zone for smaller positions, based on the same analysis. The outlook stresses patience rather than chasing local highs.
Network demand and derivatives positioning add pressure
On-chain indicators show declining activity on the XRP Ledger. Data from DeFiLlama places total value locked at $48.5 million, down from $80.5 million in early January and about $120 million in mid-July last year. Weekly chain revenue has dropped to roughly one-third of levels seen last September.
Derivatives markets show traders unwinding positions. Open interest has declined while the weighted funding rate has moved into negative territory, according to CoinGlass data. Negative funding rates often reflect expectations of near-term price declines and can influence spot market activity.
Institutional demand also cooled. Data from SoSoValue shows spot XRP ETFs recorded about $39 million in net inflows over the past week, compared with roughly $200 million in weekly inflows during the launch phase. Reduced inflows remove a stabilizing force that often supports prices during downturns.
Technical levels outline downside risks
The daily chart shows XRP within a descending parallel channel that began forming in mid-July last year. Assets tend to remain in a downtrend while trading inside this structure.
XRP has also fallen below a major pivot level near $1.56 on the Murrey lines framework. Loss of this level points to lower support zones ahead. MACD lines point downward and reinforce the bearish structure.
At the latest reading, XRP approaches a pivot reverse area near $1.17. Failure to hold this zone could expose the next support near $0.78, which would represent a substantial additional decline from current levels.
Market outlook remains divided
Sentiment remains fractured across the market. Some traders position for additional downside after the early February drop. Others anticipate a rebound if the price closes above key resistance, particularly a weekly close above $1.50.
Community expectations around a rapid move to $10 persist in social media discussions. Technical readings and on-chain metrics suggest a more complex path, with a risk of further consolidation or retracement before any sustained recovery.
XRP now sits at the intersection of on-chain loss realization, declining network demand, and technical pressure. The next phase will depend on whether support levels hold and whether capital returns to the broader crypto market.
Maryna Hornieieva
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