Cardano holders have experienced deep losses over the past year, with the average active wallet earning roughly -43% on its investments, according to on-chain analytics firm Santiment. The altcoin itself has dropped about 65% between March 2025 and March 2026, continuing its decline with another 21.2% fall since January.
📉 Average wallets that have been active on the Cardano network over the past year are netting a return of -43% on their investments. Memes aside about the altcoin's major -71% price decline since September, this extreme negative MVRV value is generally an indicator of $ADA being… pic.twitter.com/LzQRKhobQe
— Santiment (@santimentfeed) March 24, 2026
Santiment noted that extreme negative MVRV (market value to realized value) readings often indicate an “opportunity” zone for buyers.
“In a zero-sum game, when average returns are severely negative, this is an indication of a looming turnaround with coins always averaging 0% on MVRV's across any timeframe,” the report said.
While losses remain widespread, professional traders see potential for lower-risk entry points. Larger players often interpret deep drawdowns as favorable conditions, as reduced selling pressure can limit further declines. Markets tend to normalize over time around zero average returns, which can precede recovery phases, though timing remains uncertain.
Heavy short positioning signals potential reversal
Derivatives data on Binance shows Cardano funding rates at their highest ratio of shorts to longs since June 2023. Historically, heavily crowded short trades can trigger price movements in the opposite direction when positions unwind. Santiment emphasized that funding rates tend to push prices toward paths that surprise the majority, which indicates a reversal could occur if momentum shifts.
“Most participants are holding losses, which reduces selling pressure over time,” Santiment noted. “At the same time, larger players often see reduced risk when prices move far below average cost basis.”
Midnight network could act as a catalyst
Cardano is preparing to launch the Midnight network, a privacy-focused sidechain built over eight years. The network targets a launch later this week and will operate with a federated set of node operators including Google Cloud, Telegram, Blockdaemon, Shielded Technologies, AlphaTON, MoneyGram, Pairpoint by Vodafone, and eToro.
Cardano founder Charles Hoskinson described the launch as a highly complex endeavor.
“Launching cryptocurrency is kind of like landing the space shuttle. It comes down at 30,000 miles an hour and somehow lands on a runway like a plane does and no one dies, which is truly extraordinary when you really think about it, but they make it look like it’s pedestrian,” he said in a March 23 video.
Midnight is designed to sell privacy for data and execution. It uses zero-knowledge proofs, including Plonk and Halo 2, along with multi-party computation and trusted execution environments. This architecture allows users to prove regulatory compliance without exposing underlying proprietary data, addressing global anti-money-laundering regulations.
Cardano ecosystem metrics remain low
Despite the upcoming launch, Cardano’s current network activity remains modest. TradingView data shows ADA trades at roughly $0.2576, giving the token a market capitalization near $9.31 billion, over 91% below its all-time high of $3.09.
The chain supports only $138.03 million in total value locked and $47.35 million in stablecoins. DeFiLlama data shows daily fees generated at $1,931.
The Midnight network uses a dual-token model, with NIGHT as a public governance asset and DUST as a shielded, non-transferable resource for transaction fees and smart-contract execution. NIGHT recently traded at $0.04418, with a market capitalization near $742.2 million and 24-hour trading volumes exceeding $1.24 billion, outperforming ADA over the past 30 days.
Hoskinson said Midnight could expand Cardano’s DeFi ecosystem on X.
“Adding Midnight to Cardano supercharges our DeFi ecosystem and will 10x the MAUs, Transactions, and TVL as we are first to market with private DeFi at scale,” he stated.
Full capabilities may take six to 12 months to roll out, including governance experiments and an incentivized testnet for stake pool operators.
Infrastructure upgrades support growth
Cardano recently integrated LayerZero, connecting to over 160 networks and $80 billion in omnichain assets. Circle’s USDCx stablecoin launched natively on the network, and developers are actively testing native Bitcoin staking. Alongside Midnight, these developments offer the blockchain its most comprehensive growth experiment in years, providing improved rails for institutional capital and user engagement.
Roman Zaika
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